‘We dodged a bullet’

The damage from Alfred could have been ‘magnitudes worse’. It’s a timely reminder of the cyclone risks facing southeast Queensland

By Wendy Pugh

Damage costs from Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred could have exceeded current estimates by billions of dollars if a near-miss scenario had played out – a close call that serves as warning for a region exposed to risks that are expected to increase.

Alfred was monitored over two weeks as it travelled south, peaked at category 4 intensity, made a sharp westward turn and headed for the densely populated Gold Coast-Brisbane-Sunshine Coast region.

The Queensland government for the first time issued an emergency declaration before a cyclone had hit, moving to shore up food and essential supply chains, while insurers escalated preparations as a category 2 coastal impact appeared likely, with a possibility of stronger wind speeds.

“Cyclones don’t take long to intensify to higher categories, so we were talking about different scenarios as we were preparing,” IAG executive manager of natural perils and meteorologist Peter Chan tells Insurance News.

“We were doing daily briefings in the morning for at least five days prior, and more than a week after the event as well.”

The cyclone kept the region on edge as it slowed and stalled.

It became a category 1 system as it neared the Moreton Bay islands, and the Bureau of Meteorology downgraded Alfred to a tropical low at 6am (AEST) on March 8 before it finally crossed Bribie Island and reached the coast near Caboolture.

Mr Chan says Alfred caused significant damage, but the impact could have been “magnitudes worse”.

“In a way, we did dodge a bullet in that it did not come through with 140, 150 [km/h] winds,” he says.

“But there was quite a lot of impact in terms of wind and rainfall and flooding in a region that I wouldn’t say is unknown to cyclones, but you have to go back a few decades.”

Cyclone Wanda came ashore near Maryborough, but caused Brisbane’s January 1974 floods. Zoe made landfall at Coolangatta two months later, and Nancy in 1990 tracked close to Brisbane, bringing heavy rain and flash flooding.

The Gold Coast was hit by an unnamed cyclone in February 1954, when it was much quieter and less of a tourist hub. Most of the damage involved northern NSW floods.

The region’s development has surged as cyclone memories have faded, but the risks are rising with climate change and economic growth.

Two years ago, the Queensland government estimated the population in the state’s southeast would rise to 5.9 million in 2046 from 3.8 million in 2021, and homes have not been built to standards required in the cyclone-prone north.

“Most of the climate studies we are engaged with suggest that because the Earth is getting warmer, so is the ocean, and a warm ocean is a key ingredient in supporting the growth and development of tropical cyclones,” Mr Chan says.

Warming further from the equator increases the chance of cyclones in areas where conditions were previously marginal, although limiting elements such as wind shear also become more of an influence further south.

“Cyclones don’t just need a warm ocean, they also need other atmospheric ingredients,” Mr Chan says. “I’ve seen articles talking about whether [a cyclone] will hit Sydney eventually.

“I wouldn’t say it’s impossible, but it’s still going to be very difficult in a warmer world, given the other factors at play.”

Swiss catastrophe modelling group Perils estimated Alfred losses at $2.57 billion in a May report reflecting information provided by insurance partners and including property and motor hull lines.

“It is a particularly interesting case, as Alfred had features of a severe convective storm, with strong winds and intense rainfall, albeit over an extended period of time,” Perils’ Asia-Pacific and cyber head Darryl Pidcock tells Insurance News.

“This has resulted in a relatively higher proportion of food spoilage claims due to power outages, as well as some water ingress and storm surge property-related damage.”

Mr Pidcock says Alfred is not only one of the largest catastrophes to hit the Gold Coast and Brisbane region in more than 50 years, it is also one of the largest cyclone loss events on an “as-if-today” basis since Tracy hit Darwin in 1974.

“Based upon Perils exposure data, if Alfred had passed over the coastline at a higher intensity, it is fair to say the industry losses would have been significantly higher, potentially comparative to loss events such as Cyclone Tracy and the 2022 eastern Australia floods.”

An Insurance Council of Australia report from 2023 says Tracy losses today – if adjusted for inflation and current property numbers, values and building codes – would top $7 billion. In the case of Wanda, original loss estimates were $68 million, but a present-day impact would be $5.26 billion.

Alfred is the largest event so far for the federal government’s cyclone reinsurance pool, which all relevant insurers have joined following a staggered start.

The scheme estimates it will pick up losses totalling about $1.7 billion based on initial modelling. The pool covers household, strata and small business losses until 48 hours after a cyclone is downgraded.

ICA last month said insured losses from Alfred had reached $1.236 billion from more than 116,000 claims lodged to date.

Suncorp says its daily claims numbers were in the thousands for up to a week after the event, which included “relentless rain, destructive winds and storm surges”.

Its Beyond The Event report says Brisbane experienced its wettest day since the 1974 floods, with 275mm to 307mm rainfall totals.

The insurer has received more than 31,000 claims, making it one of the largest events in its history by that measure.

The company’s severe weather meteorologist Andrew Bufalino says in a warming climate, storms like Alfred will become more likely, potentially extending further south in decades to come.

“This highlights the increasing importance of preparedness and resilient infrastructure in the face of a changing climate,” he says.

Alfred’s gust speeds, estimated at 155km/h as it approached the coast, raised concerns about the ability of housing to withstand such conditions, given construction code requirements for cyclone-prone areas take effect in a region further north under Australian Standards.

Southeast Queensland and northern NSW are in region B; higher-risk coastal areas across the north of Australia are in region C. A section of WA including the Pilbara coastline, where cyclones often cross, is designated region D. Low-risk southern and inland Australia is mostly region A.

Risk Frontiers general manager Mark Leplastrier says region B homes have not traditionally been designed for the sudden internal pressure changes that happen when cyclones break windows and doors, potentially lifting roofs and leading to more catastrophic impacts.

In Western Australia, Cyclone Seroja caused extensive damage to modern buildings in Kalbarri in 2021 when it crossed the coast unusually far south at category 3 strength.

Cyclonic wind continued to damage rural properties as the system swept towards the small wheatbelt town of Dalwallinu.

Kalbarri, which sits at a latitude similar to the Gold Coast, has fewer than 2000 residents.

“If you multiply how much larger the population is in southeast Queensland, northern New South Wales, there’s certainly potential to have extremely large impacts,” Mr Leplastrier tells Insurance News.

“It is not a high-frequency cyclone area, and particularly the stronger ones are rarer again, but certainly we dodged a bullet compared to what it could have been from [Alfred].”

Mr Leplastrier notes uncertainties around cyclone impacts in specific areas, with influences including the El Nino Southern Oscillation affecting whether they track close to Australia.

But research generally points to the risk of intense events further south.

“Another aspect is that the cyclones that do form are going to carry more water – so higher rainfall rates and potentially bigger storm footprints affecting larger areas.”

A wide range of vulnerabilities should be considered to enhance resilience and ensure communities are better placed to recover after catastrophes, Mr Leplastrier says.

“It’s not just about where people live, it’s also where they work that we need to think about, and having more of a conversation around designing to make sure economies stay resilient.

“From a flood resilience perspective, it’s often the business districts that are closest to our old forms of transport, being the rivers, and they’re often in highly vulnerable flood plains.”

A James Cook University and Natural Hazards Research Australia report on damage to buildings by Alfred shows even wind speeds of about 100km/h were enough to cause failings in weatherproofing systems, cladding, glazing and pedestal-mounted balcony pavers.

Report co-author and James Cook Cyclone Testing Station chief engineer David Henderson says reports of 15kg balcony pavers starting to lift and move around on modern commercial structures in an ex-tropical cyclone was an eye opener.

“On one building, lifted balcony pavers broke the glass balustrades and ended up on the street, several floors below,” he says.

“That’s a real wake-up call. If the wind speeds were higher, they would have been potentially deadly flying debris hitting other buildings.”

The James Cook University report says that in a storm as strong as the forecast for Alfred – or the strength of Seroja – breakages leading to high internal pressures would have caused significant load increases on elements such as roof tie-downs.

“As the buildings in this area are not generally designed for these higher loads, the stronger event would cause significant structural damage (to up to 30% of houses) even if the winds did not exceed the design wind speed,” the report says.

Natural Hazards Research Australia chief executive Andrew Gissing says the report outlines ways to improve safety and resilience against cyclone threats.

“While the damage from Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred was less severe than expected, large parts of this was due to a combination of meteorological factors,” he says.

“Southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales may not be as lucky next time.”